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Türkiye ekonomisi yavaşlamaya geri dönüyor … ve enflasyonu düşürmek için sürekli çabalar

Türkiye Merkez Bankası Başkanı Naji Ağbal, para politikasındaki sıkılaşma ve düşen kredilerin bir sonucu olarak 2020’nin son çeyreğinde Türkiye ekonomisinde yaşanan yavaşlamayı açıkladı ve lira üzerindeki baskının sürdüğünü ve tüketici artışının sürdüğünü kabul etti. Türk lirasının dolar karşısındaki kazanımlarının enflasyonist baskıları azaltacağına işaret ediyor. Ancak üretici fiyatları enflasyonu yükseliş eğilimini sürdürecek ve tüketici fiyatlarını baskı altında tutacak.
Aghbal, dün (Perşembe) çeyreklik enflasyon güncellemelerinin değerlendirmesinde yaptığı açıklamada, geçen yılın son çeyreğindeki talep koşullarının da enflasyon üzerinde yukarı yönlü baskıyı sürdürdüğünü ve 2020’yi beklenenden daha yüksek bir seviyede kapattığını belirterek, Merkez Bankası’nın Parasal Politika Komitesi, enflasyon oranını yüzde 5’e düşürmek için mevcut tüm araçlara yatırım yapmaya devam edecektir.
Enflasyonun 2021 yılı sonunda yüzde 9,4, 2022’de ise yüzde 7 olmasını bekleyen Ağbal, son üç ayda döviz kurlarının Türk lirası karşısındaki düşüşünün enflasyonu düşürmeye çalıştığına işaret etti. Türkiye’de geçen Aralık ayında enflasyon oranı yıllık yüzde 14,6 oldu.
Ağbal, Türkiye’nin ekonomik büyümesinin 2020 sonunda güçlü bir trend kaydettiğini ancak son göstergelere göre, kısmen Ağustos ayında başlayan para politikasının sıkılaştırılması ve kredi büyümesindeki düşüş nedeniyle yavaşladığını söyledi.
Aghbal, çeyreklik enflasyonla ilgili güncellemesinde, geçen yılın ikinci yarısında dünyanın 2020’de tanık olduğu Corona salgınının ilk dalgasının ardından istihdamda iyileşmeye yol açtığını söyledi.
Geçen Kasım ayında Aghbal’in merkez bankası başkanı olarak atanmasının ardından, merkez bankası gösterge faiz oranını yüzde 10,25’ten yüzde 17’ye yükseltti. Güncellemede Ağbal, son dönemlerde Corona virüsü ile mücadeleye ilişkin kısıtlamaların ekonominin bazı sektörlerini yavaşlattığını belirtti.
Ağbal, yatırımcılara lirayı savunmak ve yüksek enflasyonla mücadele etmek için para politikasını sıkılaştırmaya devam edeceği mesajını verdi. Türk lirasının dolar karşısında en düşük seviyeye düşmesi nedeniyle Murat Uysal’ın görevden alınmasının ardından, Kasım ayı başında Cumhurbaşkanı Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Naji Ağbal’ı merkez bankası başkanı olarak atadı.
Eski merkez bankası baş ekonomisti Hakan Kara, yüksek emtia fiyatları ve asgari ücretteki artışın yıl sonu tahmininde yukarı yönlü bir revizyon gerektirdiğini söyledi. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’da bir ekonomist olan Arkan Chetici, 2021’deki enflasyonu yaklaşık yüzde 10,5 olarak tahmin etti, ancak Bloomberg’e göre, yıllık fiyat artışları Aralık ayına kadar tek rakamlara düşebilir.
Londra’daki BlueBay’in yükselen piyasa analisti Tim Ash Twitter’da yaptığı açıklamada, “Türkiye Merkez Bankası başkanı Naji Ağbal’e güveniyoruz … Piyasa dönüşümünün anahtarı o.”
Türk merkez bankası, Erdoğan’ın borçlanma patlamasını canlandırmasına yardımcı olmak için geçen yılın büyük bölümünde faiz oranlarını enflasyonun altında tuttu ve analistlere göre gevşek para politikası, merkez bankasının yatırımcılar nezdindeki güvenilirliğine zarar verdi. Ancak bazıları, bankanın yüzde 5’lik orta vadeli bir enflasyon hedefinin peşinden gitmesiyle birlikte, Ağbal’in yeni bir para politikası dönemi olarak gelişini müjdeliyor.
Aralık ayında enflasyon merkez bankasının hedefinin üç katı olan yüzde 14,6 oldu. Hükümet, geçen Eylül ayında açıklanan bir ekonomik programda enflasyonun 2021 sonunda% 8’e düşeceğini tahmin ediyordu.
Erdoğan, 2019 ve 2020 yıllarında Türkiye Merkez Bankası başkanlarından ikisini görevden aldı ve bu Ocak ayında yaptığı iki açıklamada, kabul edilen tüm ekonomi teorilerinin aksine, yüksek faiz oranlarının daha yüksek enflasyona yol açtığını gördüğü için faiz oranlarını artırmaya karşı tavrını tekrarladı. .
Dün İstanbul’da yerel saatle 10: 15’te lira yüzde 0,3 gerileyerek dolar karşısında 7,41’e geriledi, ancak öğle saatlerinde geri dönerek kayıplarının bir kısmını telafi ederek dolar başına 7,37 liradan işlem gördü. Para birimi Kasım ayının altıncı gününde 8,58 ile şimdiye kadarki en düşük seviyesini vurdu. 2020’de değerinin yüzde 20’sini kaybettikten sonra, bu yıl şimdiye kadar elde edilen birkaç yükselen piyasa para biriminden biri.
Bu hafta yayınladıkları ortak bildiride, Türkiye’nin önde gelen iş grupları yetkilileri, ülkenin uzun vadeli mali refahını sağlamak ve daha fazla yatırımı teşvik etmek için gerekli olduğunu söyledikleri çift haneli enflasyonla başa çıkmaya öncelik vermeye çağırdılar.

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